who is likely to win nigeria presidential election

Create a nationwide shortage of cash so that citizens are incited to vote against APC candidates across the board resulting in massive losses for the Party in all the elections; b. This means a winning candidate must not only have Nigeria election 2023: Who are the presidential candidates? It will be the largest. If you are interested in licensing this content, please contact, If you want to follow all the latest news without any limits, subscribe to EL PAS for just 1 the first month. In a report on the election, the international firm predicted Mr Tinubu to win but, however, also did not also rule out the rising possibility of a run-off. Only three out of 18 candidates stand a realistic chance of winning the presidency on February 25. The race promises to be filled with intense competition and a lot of uncertainty, making it difficult to predict who will come out on top. They say that a majority of PP and Vox is the most likely outcome, although it happens approximately half of the time. AllNews Hausa; . And sixteen months ago, the Supreme Court had yet to issue the Dobbs decision, a ruling widely understood to have impacted last Novembers midterms in ways that were mostly unfavorable to Republicans. The poll shows him with a three-point lead over Biden, 44 to 41 percent; DeSantis trails the president by two points, for comparison. For instance, 73 per cent of persons between the age of 18 25 intended to vote in February while 82 per cent of registered voters aged 26-35 said they are going to vote. That applies to the political parties and other public and private institutions with a role to play in the elections. The 2024 election is more likely to hinge on traditional issues like inflation and the state of the economy than it is on relitigating 2020 or the scandal surrounding Jan. 6 and Trumps attempts to overturn the election. Can Trump win again? Why 2024 looks like 2016 - with key differences southwest given Tinubu is the most powerful politician in Unless the situation improves dramatically before Saturday, the stage may have been set for low voter turnout, which may affect the outcomes of many of the polls and the legitimacy of the winners. The history of presidential elections consists of example after example of unexpected events arising close to Election Day. Kwankwaso Rabiu is a former governor of Kano State, and he was also a former Minister of Defense. However, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research found something entirely different. Atiku Abubakar is a former Vice President of Nigeria and a business magnate. POPULAR ARTICLES ON: Government, Public Sector from Nigeria. He is known for his vast political experience, his successful business career and his ability to connect with the masses. And the opposite happens with the PSOE, because if it grows enough it would threaten the PPs first position in many provinces. This informal rule says the president and his vice cannot be of Support PREMIUM TIMES' journalism of integrity and credibility, Amnesty International demands identities of #EndSARS protesters due for mass burial, Ministerial List: After about 56 days in office, Tinubu has till Friday to appoint ministers, Football Transfers: Nigerias Boniface excited about special opportunity at Bayer Leverkusen, EXCLUSIVE: Nigerian billionaire, son at war over multi-billion dollar family assets, #EndSARS: What Lagos govt said about 103 recovered bodies and what we know, EDITORIAL: Impunity and human rights concerns in Kanos gale of demolitions, Nigerias Federal/States Budgets since 2005. A screenshot showing the false post, taken on July 20, 2023, The narrator claims the election tribunal in Abuja ruled in favour of Obi, adding: "Mr. Jagaban don dey threaten Nigeria about chaos (, The last update on proceedings was on July 14, 2023, when the Court of Appeal. ) Nigeria 2023: How the presidential election will be won and lost In some states such as Rivers, the governors have put thousands of party hacks on the public payroll just to tie down their loyalty and use them for the elections. Most of the presidential candidates belong to either the All Progressives Congress (APC) or the People's Democratic Party (PDP), while some have decided to run as independent candidates.. Sign Up for our free News Alerts - All the latest articles on your chosen topics condensed into a free bi-weekly email. that region. The last update on proceedings was on July 14, 2023, when the Court of Appeal said it had reserved judgment in a petition brought by the Allied People Movement (archive here). PREPEC 2023: Has Reserved Judgement on the Petition brought before it by APM challenging the outcome of the 2023 Elections.Counsel to the Petitioner tendered and adopted their final written addresses and reports by all the parties and urged the Court to grant their Petition. Share your story with us! Then Obi, or at least many of his Simulate. He also reiterated the presidents now hollow-sounding affirmation of support for his partys presidential candidate. According to the accompanying note to the result of the poll by EiE: The data suggest that the Labour Party (LP)s Peter Obi and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)s Atiku Abubakar could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the countrys six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. However, some experts have weighed in on the matter and have made their predictions for the candidate that will win. As a result, a candidate with a solid economic plan and a proven track record of creating jobs and spurring growth is likely to do well in the polls. constituencies. Election odds 2024 have Joe Biden at +150. about your specific circumstances. Politics Polls Who is most likely to win the 2023 Presidential Election? Court of Appeal, Nigeria (CoA) (@NGCourtofAppeal) July 14, 2023. On the other hand, the polls that predicted victory for Mr Tinubu expect him to win on the first ballot, although one of them, Fitch, hedged its bet by not ruling out the possibility of a run-off. This is the question answered by our classic probabilistic electoral model, which EL PAS has been publishing since 2016. In another 5% of the simulations there could be a PP government, if in addition to getting support from Vox in an investiture vote, the party also secures backing from Coalicin Canaria, Unin del Pueblo Navarro and Teruel Existe. It is important to do so because in general the errors in the surveys are systemic and the same in all territories. Email MandyNews1@gmail.com, . If Democrats dont come to grips with this possibility and focus on winning outright, they may be the ones struggling to accept the outcome of an election. guide to the subject matter. As the clock counts down to 25 February, normal pre-poll excitement about who may win has been overtaken by a not unreasonable fear, especially among Nigerians who were adults before the last of the military despots were ushered out in 1999, that the election may not even hold. Student-t distributions are used instead of normal ones so that they have longer tails (kurtosis): this makes it more likely that very extreme events will occur. Follow Us On Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter. One of the front-runners for the race is the former vice president, who is trying to get into Aso Rock again. The president of the Anap Foundation, Atedo Peterside, disclosed this on Wednesday, December 21. Presidential Election Odds 2024 (July 21) Here is a look at odds to win US President in 2024. The 2023 Nigerian Presidential race is shaping up to be a historic one, with many candidates from different political parties vying for the chance to lead the country. 'Godfather of Lagos' is the man to beat in pivotal Nigerian election Bola Ahmed Tinubu remains frontrunner for president but a new voice has captured the youth vote Jason Burke in Lagos Fri 24. This momentum isnt just in the primary. To answer these questions, hundreds of surveys in Spain and thousands internationally are studied. PAY ATTENTION: heck out news that is picked exactly for YOU find the Recommended for you block on the home page and enjoy! Your support matters! with Gida Gida in the lead, and a rerun was announced in some I n February 2023, Nigeria will hold its general elections, ending President Muhammadu Buhari's eight-year term. The graph shows the summary: What does this data mean? Nigeria presidential election 2023: Who are the main candidates and predecessor had died in office and power had prematurely fallen to It is not the election week that Nigerians anticipated or that anyone foresaw. However, for those who will cast their votes regardless, many may take out their anger on whichever candidate they can blame for the situation. civilian rule was restored. While this Poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the undecided/swing voters as they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections., The researchers said the survey was polled from 1,000 respondents; after which Anap Foundation conducted similar polls with a 2,000 and 3,000 respondents sample size, the difference in the results was not significant.. Exaggerated and discredited narratives dominated news cycles. Although six more APC governors applied to join the plaintiffs, forcing the court to shift the hearing in the suit by a week until 22 February, President Muhammadu Buhari brushed aside the intervention of the highest court in the land and insisted that the two highest banknotes (N500 and N1000) had ceased to be legal tenders. But the vote-counting process was violently disrupted Given the large pool of undecided voters and/or those who refused to disclose their preferred choice, Mr Peter Obis 8%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 3%. For those who have been following our blog since 2014, it should be noted that we have an accurate track record of predictions. Ensure that the cash crunch is so serious, along with the contrived and enduring fuel shortage existing since September 2022, that the 2023 Elections do not hold at all, leading to an Interim National Government to be led by a retired Army General; c. Sustain the climate of shortage of fuel, food and other necessities, leading to mass protests, violence and breakdown of law and order that would provide a fertile foundation for a military take-over, the governor said. Sign up now. , , , . Ally rea 15 fun places in Ikeja: cool hangout spots you should check out, 'Era of mass closures': the Japan businesses without successors, Ministerial List: Tinubu removes Wike, Ganduje's names over DSS report? Nigeria election results: Peter Obi lands surprise win in Lagos State - CNN Its now widely accepted that former President Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. This makes it possible to address the fundamental question of a general election: which parties have a chance of winning the 176 seats required for a majority? Sunday, January 08, 2023 at 1:03 AM by Nurudeen Lawal Nigeria's legal icon Afe Babalola (SAN) has predicted the winner of the forthcoming 2023 presidential election At a press briefing in Ado Ekiti, the elder statesman said the poll would be won by the highest spender, not the best among the candidates After years of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising inflation, many Nigerians are looking for a candidate who can turn things around and bring prosperity to the country. The party lost in two out of six states in the Spain election: Conservatives win but fall short of majority Incorporate survey uncertainty. Nigeria 2023 Presidential Election And What It'll Take To Win. The Gabonese Election Centre (CGE) on Monday published a list of 19 candidates for the presidential elections scheduled for August 26. Runners-up were former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peoples Democratic Party, and former Governor of . Youll only need to do it once, and readership information is just for authors and is never sold to third parties. On ethnicity, 10 per cent of the respondents noted that ethnicity informed their choice of candidates while 86 per cent said their choices were not influenced by ethnicity. Three state governors in the party obtained an injunction from the Supreme Court to extend the time for the swapping of the banknotes, pending the determination by the court of their challenge of the legality of some aspects of the policy. 5th July, 2023PREPEC 2023: Tinubu &APC closed their case in the petition by Obi &LP by tendering several documents before the CourtAmong documents tendered is LPs membership register in Anambra& 3rd Respondents voluntary withdrawal of candidacy from Borno Senatorial election, Court of Appeal, Nigeria (CoA) (@NGCourtofAppeal) July 6, 2023. popular will by manipulating the electoral process. Once Asiwaju Bola Tinubu emerged as the candidate in June 2022, and subsequently did not pick one of them as his running mate, this currency redesign policy was conceived to ensure that the APC presidential candidate is deprived of what they alleged is a humongous war chest. November 1, 2022 139 No comment The 2023 general election is fast approaching, each party and their candidates are gearing up to put in all their shots at winning Nigeria's number office as the President of the nation. Governor Nasir El-Rufai, whose Kaduna is one of the three states that initiated the suit before the Supreme Court, has since come out gun blazing against the presidency, echoing a claim by the APC standard bearer, Bola Tinubu, that the policy, as well as a protracted scarcity of fuel, were part of a plot to sabotage his run or altogether scuttle the election and force an unconstitutional government on the country at the expiration of Mr Buharis tenure on 29 May. If this cash squeeze makes cash unavailable to them, while it may discourage voters who are used to selling their votes from going to the polling units, those who do will vote for who they prefer without inducement. PAY ATTENTION: heck out news that is picked exactly for YOU click on Recommended for you and enjoy! Ministerial List: Tinubu removes Wike, Ganduje's names over DSS report? the APC's Tinubu. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. Many of the polls put Mr Obi in the lead but all of them who did so also predicted a run-off. Its also important to note that many factors can affect the outcome of an election, such as the state of the economy, the popularity of the candidates, and the effectiveness of their campaign strategies. Betting markets echo the polls, and currently give Trump 2-1 odds of being the nominee over DeSantis. Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Peter Obi and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. To make this estimate we used a statistical model and simulated the elections 15,000 times, as explained in the methodology at the end of the article. the same religion, and that power must oscillate between the north Kwankwaso, who had previously been filmed collecting cash from a Again, poll projects Peter Obi to win 2023 election - Premium Times they must also have extensive party infrastructure across the In conclusion, this analyst still sees either of the candidates of the two establishment parties emerging as the winner on the first ballot. For one, it suggests that many Americans ultimately may not care about whether someone, Trump or otherwise, tries to steal an election by pressuring state and local officials to overturn results. In the 15,000 simulations, that is the frequency with which the two parties reach the 176 seats they need. Progressives raised millions of dollars to oppose Republican candidates who were convinced the presidency was stolen from Trump, while pundits across the political spectrum have written article after article about how Trump and his acolytes could steal the election in 2024. Every presidential election in Nigeria could be summarised as an Nigeria's Labour Party's candidate Peter Obi casts his vote during the presidential elections in Agulu, Nigeria. Who's Running for Nigeria's Presidency in 2023? | The Republic Get the Daily Beast's biggest scoops and scandals delivered right to your inbox. Nigeria presidential election results 2023 by the numbers Specialist advice should be sought Most modern government is made up of three arms working together - namely the Executive, the Judiciary, and the Legislature. Some see a clear majority for the right, others give it a narrow majority and some see a left-wing government as more likely. The model is similar to the one we used in the elections of April and November 2019, in Mexico, France, the United Kingdom, and in Spains regional elections of Andalusia, Catalonia or Madrid. Also, you will not take a security person to a polling unit from morning till evening without giving him money to eat and I dont think you expect him to go to the POS to withdraw the N1,000 you are going to give him, Mr Bello said. Sixteen months ago, Russia had just invaded Ukraine, an event that few saw coming. The nationwide poll shows a significant lead taken by Mr Obi with Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively trailing him. His election victory is being challenged by Obi, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and the Allied People Movement. When it comes to the predictions, its important to keep in mind that these are just predictions and that anything can happen in the months leading up to the election. Fundamental Human Rights Under The 1999 Constitution (As Amended), An Overview Of The Nigerian Anti-Money Laundering Act 2022, Money Laundering (Prevention And Prohibition) Act 2022: Enhanced Anti-Money Laundering Regime In Nigeria, A Summary Of The Legislative Process In Nigeria: A Guide To Lawmaking In The National Assembly, Energy & Infrastructure Construction Law Roundtable In Lagos, Nigeria, Violations Of Proprietary Rights In Nigeria: A Discourse Of Courts' Decisions In Defence Of Citizens' Rights, Dear Mr. President, Please Don't Tax It, Fix It First, Recent Developments in Corporate Tax Landscape in Nigeria in Relation to Non-Resident Companies, Understanding the Intersection of Consumer Protection and Artificial Intelligence, Mondaq Ltd 1994 - 2023. Despite Biden garnering a clear majority of the electoral college in 2020, Trump refused to concede, and instead urged his supporters to stop the steala message that famously culminated in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. Subscribe now. Meanwhile, popular political commentator, Deji Adeyanju, has predicted APC flag bearer, Tinubu, to emerge winner of the 2023 presidential election. Nigerian Election 2023 and Bola Tinubu's Victory: What to Know Yes, But, Obasanjo Blasts Tinubu And Atiku: Emi Lokan And I Have Paid My Dues Are The Same, Peter Obi Challenges APC: Why Didnt You Bring Osinbajo If You Want Nigeria To Work?, Happy 62nd Birthday Peter Obi: 20 Things We Can Learn From Him, Bobriskys BBL Transformation Video Goes Viral, Court Orders Former Presidents To Account For Abachas $5bn Loot, Anambra Gives Peter Obi A Royal Welcome For His Presidential Campaign, APC Under Fire: Man Claims To Have Been Offered Food In Exchange For His Voter Card. There are 176,846 polling units across the country. Also, those who are going to transport our men, materials and security to the polling units will need cash to do that. Over the past few weeks, violent protests in parts of the country over the scarcity of banknotes have overshadowed the campaign rallies. Peter Obi, Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar (TAR) It's official. The NNPP Predictions For The 2023 Nigerian Presidential Race: The Candidate That Will Win. For example, according to our calculations, the PPs most likely outcome would be around 142 seats, but its 90% probability range is from 119 to 164 seats. Nigeria elections 2023: What you need to know - The Star eclipse Atiku's lead in PDP strongholds in the south. Historically, an exceedingly high percentage of voters refusing to disclose their preferred candidate is usually associated with perceptions/fears (real or imagined) of possible voter intimidation within a geographical area., Anap foundation added: Our December 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters, combined with the voters who refused to disclose their preferences, are enough to turn the tables., However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front-runners and so our subsequent polls will continue to concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only., All content is Copyrighted 2023 The Premium Times, Nigeria. Stepdad wins big Powerball prize and gives his stepdaughter good and bad news, Photos show Hunter Biden in dad's Corvette at Delaware home on same day as 'shakedown' message, Two free divers found dead in Hawaii on Oahu's North Shore, Romney calls on GOP donors to pressure noncompetitive Trump rivals to drop out, It's Finally Been Revealed If "Barbie" Or "Oppenheimer" Won At The Box Office This Weekend, And The Winner Broke A Major Record, Guatemalans protest interference by court, prosecutors in August's second-round election, Ramaswamy: Trump showed bad judgment on Jan. 6, but its not the same thing as a crime. If Donald Trump is their nominee, he will be far more competitive than many think. And should the Democrats nominee in 2024 somehow be Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump becomes the far-and-away frontrunner. The history of presidential elections consists of example after example of unexpected events arising close to Election Day. The results in these simulations make it possible to calculate the probabilities that each party has of winning a certain number of seats, reaching a majority, coming first, and so on. View Election betting odds for those candidates and more below. PAY ATTENTION: Donate to Legit Charity on Patreon. He also issued a congratulatory message to Muslims on the Islamic New Year on July 19, 2023 (archived here). What we dont know is which of those futures will be ours. The governors of the four other Atiku got 10% while Kwankwaso polled two per cent in the fresh poll released in December. the elite have tried to answer this question using the zoning Since then, observers have feared that legal loopholes and gaps in election administration could leave future elections vulnerable to attempts at being overturned. Jonathan Bydlak is the director of the governance program at the R Street Institute, a center-right think tank. Days earlier, it had tweeted confirmation (archived here) that both Obi and Tinubu had closed their cases after all evidence had been presented and witnesses' testimonies completed. First GOP presidential debate: Here's a rundown of who will qualify A social media post published with a video claim, Labour Partys Peter Obi the winner of the, February 25 presidential election. The Supreme Court Just Dropped a Big L on Partisan Gerrymandering.

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